As serious discussions on Kosovo in the UN Sec. Council are approaching, it might be time to think of scenarios. I can see three scenarios that might happen.

The first one would be that the UN Sec. Council votes to endorse the Ahtisaari plan. This would primarily mean Russia backing down from its insistence on an agreed solution (i.e. Serbia agreeing to any plan for Kosovo). Considering that Russia has made a considerable investment in preventing a vote, including the visit of UN Sec. Council members to Kosovo, any simple backing down of Russia seems unlikely at this point. Secondly, if Russia was isolated, pressure might mount, but it seems like not only some other UN Sec. Council members, but also some EU members are less than enthusiastic about the plan which would secure Kosovo's independence. Thus, this outcome seems increasingly unlikely.

In the second scenario, Russia would successfully block the resolution and/or push for a resolution to continue negotiations. Besides the fact that the odds for any negotiated solution between Kosovo and Serbia are infinitely small, such a resolution is unlikely to be endorsed by the USA and UK. Instead, this scenario would mean no resolution. In this case, a unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo would be recognized by some countries, the UN mission would loose all legitimacy, and the North of Kosovo would secede. The risk for violence in Mitrovica or against Serbs in enclaves elsewhere would be great, as would be a turn to the nasty in Serbia (esp. if there will be new elections). Exactly for this reason, EU and USA will try to avoid this outcome.

The third, and in my view most likely, scenario is that the UN Security Council will pass a compromise resolution which does not fully endorse Artisaari plan, but acknowledges it (or something along these lines), transfers the international administration from UN to EU and offers to take final decision (maybe on the basis of the Artisaari plan, just like the UN Sec. Council Res. 1244 takes account of the Rambouillet plans) within a closely defined time frame (i.e. one year or less). This would allow Russia to claim victory, while preventing a chaotic vacuum in Kosovo. The key challenge will be on how to secure support from the Kosovo Albanian elite to prevent a unilateral declaration of independence or violence. While not exactly the ideal case scenario, this solution might allow the EU mission to prepare Kosovo for independence and avoid a void, which would be worse in terms of precedent setting and potential violence than no resolution at all.

When crickets become evidence... Jutarnji List reports that some have questioned the recently released recording of the meeting in Brijoni of Tudjman and the army to plan operation Oluja in 1995. According to the report there is no sound of crickets when Tudjman talks about the expulsion of Serbs, unlike elsewhere on the recording. In its comprehensive reporting, it also shares some information on crickets: they only chirp when its warmer than 25 degrees (in fact you can calculate the temperature by the frequency of the chirps) and they don't chirp when they are in danger or they rest.
So if there was no chirping during during these statements, I would propose several alternative theories to that of a doctored tape: a) the crickets were exhausted and took a quick break; b) they thought they would be expelled next and as noted above, crickets in danger don't chirp or c) there was an unexpected drop in temperature (a certain chill in the air so to speak) or d) they just didn't want to be on the soundtrack to such a project...

Here's a short interview for RFE I gave on the Kosovo status discusion in Serbian and in Albanian

"Serbia, China agree to boost agricultural cooperation"

This is todays headline of the Chinese XINHUA news agency. Not exactly saving Kosovo...
Here's a reconstruction of the conversation:
Kostunica: You have to veto the Artisaari plan, it will forcibly remove 15 % (actually, we re-calculated, it is 15.3%) of our territory. This will be a precedent...etc etc
Hui Liangyu: (looking distracted through the window)... I see you have nice corn fields, do you want to sign an agreement?
Kostunica: Yes, especially for the cornfields in Kosovo, so that we trade on the basis of all 100% of Serbian corn fields, not just 84.7% of them. etc. etc.
Hui Liangyu (yawning) Okok

and thus the glorious agreement on boosting agricultural cooperation was signed

Finally the "I" word has been mentioned officially for Kosovo. Today Ahtisaari unveiled his plan for Kosovo and after avoiding now, as expected, mentions that Kosovo should be given independence. The hesitancy over the past seven years to name future status of Kosovo this explicitly has been understandable, but also gave unrealistic hope to the Serbian elite that anything else was an option. At this point, unfortunately, it still looks like Serbian authorities will be busier preventing the decision in the Sec. Council and any implementation, rather than making the best of the offer and the extensive minority rights protections offered in the package.

Where's Veljko?




A few years ago when looking to rent a flat in Belgrade, we nearly rented from Veljko Kadijevic daughter-in-law. She shared her outrage with us that he was wrongly maligned as the last minister of defense of Yugoslavia. Apparently the USA agrees.
As Blic reports, he is living in Florida, advising the Pentagon in Iraqi bunkers these days. Wasn't that the same Kadijevic who was raving about the 'foreign factors' destroying Yugoslavia ...

In Sarajevo last week I noticed that Vucko posters in town to remind of the Winter Olympics. The International Olympic Committee has possibly the best description of this little furry wolf with the howl which seems to call for cough-drops:

"Vuchko", the tough and courageous wolf. This mascot helped to change the traditionally frightening and bloodthirsty image of the wolf, which is present in the region. This wolf has both a serious and a cheerful side, but is happy rather than serious. It symbolises the desire of human beings to make friends with animals, to make a wolf into a Vuchko.

Spam of the day:

Von: "UNITED NATIONS AWARD DEPARTMENT." info.message04...Betreff: UNIVERSAL AWARD

Did you know that the UN is handing out awards these days? You can expect my disappointment when it was not for my contributions to global peace.

Motto of the day: Graffiti from Belgrade

Yesterday Paddy Ashdown gave a lecture here in at the University of Kent. He spoke only little on Bosnia, but instead offered both a biting critique of unilateral intervention a la Iraq and an equally staunch defense of intervention in Bosnia and other countries, if done multilaterally.
Most interesting was his lessons learned from intervention, some already generally accepted in the policy community such as rule of law first, elections second, others, although obvious, were more instructive, such as don't model the country on (an idealized version of) your own country. A number of these lessons seem to be the result of reflecting after his mission as HR in Bosnia. In particular, he favors the abolition of the Bonn powers and movement towards greater self-governance in Bosnia. Considering that he was arguably the most interventionist high rep, the call for less intervention should be instructive for current discussions on extending the mandate of the OHR in Bosnia.

Here are some quick Yugo-nostalgic food tips for Skopje (in German, sorry)

Gloomy?
When discussing the Western Balkans with analysts and policy makers, one can notice distinct mood shifts over the years. In some cases is might be just because you are at a gathering of optimists or pessimists, in other cases it has little to do with the situation in the countries, as it might be the case of dissapointed internatioanl (false) expections or what is bad in one country does not necessarily bode ill for another.
Be this as it may, it was striking to note the worried atmosphere at a meeting last week in Paris of EU policy makers and analysts. After 2006 seemed like a year where transition from post-conflict to European integration would be more tangible, little was decided. Now 2007 might be overwhelmed by the legacy of 2006. Both the status decision for Kosovo and the shutting down of the OHR in Bosnia appears already to be too much in one go. So, local 'ownership', the buzzword of a few years back has fallen in popularity. It appears that the future EU mission in Kosovo will be similar to the OHR including the Bonn-powers (to dimiss officials and pass legislation) and since the current High Rep. Schwarz Schilling is leaving early and even he noted the continued need for the OHR, full souvereignty to Bosnia also seem to be not forthcoming any time soon. To a large degree, the talk of an independence referendum of the Serb Republic by Milorad Dodik is to blame. Ironically, one of the politicians the most critical of the international community and of the OHR in particular has thrown it another life-line.
Whether the OHR will remain effective and it's decision legitimate remains to be seen. It is an emperor without clothes and if it is called on its weakness, there might be difficulties ahead. A few years back, a good part of Bosnian citizens supported an increase in the power of the OHR, in 2006 the UND early warning report notes that supporters of reducing the OHR's competences are larger than those who would like to increase it among all three national communities. Similarly in Kosovo, there is a question whether such a type of mission will be legitimate and accepted, especially as the status solution is unlikely to satisfy anybody fully.
Finally, as there is a sense that EU enlargement might be slowed down and not because of the countries in the region, but because of the EU's current internal crisis, the key carrot might be loosing some of its pull.
Altogether, the meeting left me thinking that despite some key decisions being taken in 2007, stability remains at risk and we might have to wait for 2008 for more courageous steps towards EU Integration of the region.

Last Monday, I participated in a discussion on the status of Kosovo and its implications at LSE. What was striking beside the apparently large interest in the topic was the diaspora mobilization. As a result, it was more controversial and difficult to talk calmly about some issues, such as conditional independence, than in Belgrade (or Prishtina). I guess abroad there are more people who see their role as "professionally" defending what they think their nations' interest is.

Here's an article for which I gave some statements on the elections in Serbia...

Globe and Mail, 19.1.2007

Fate of Serbian reform hinges on vote

BRUCE I. KONVISER

Special to The Globe and Mail; SOURCES

PRAGUE -- Serbs go to the polls Sunday in an early election to decide whether the country continues along its plodding path toward Western integration, accelerate the pace of reform or slide back toward radical nationalism. And the wild card in the race will be voter turnout.

Beware of university cafeterias. More than once in recent history have they been the source of protest and unrest. The mention that the confrontation between supporters of Hizbollah and other opposition groups and government followers began in the cafeteria of the Beirut Arab University. This reminds me of the 1981 demonstrations and riots in Kosovo which also began in the university cafeteria over bad food and later demanded the status of republic for Kosovo.
Solution: Close down university cafeteria in troubled times... or maybe serve such good food that nobody can complain.

To quote the Montenegrin daily Republika, "Biber trazi promjene" [Biber asks for changes], I will now start writing with East Ethnia. Enjoy and looking forward to your comments there.

Don't cry for me Serbia...

On Saturday, I stopped by the 'meeting' to commemorate the death of Miloesvic in front of the Parliament of Serbia and Montenegro. Although the numbers were impressive (80,000 according to police, 500,000 according to SPS), the gathering was pretty pathetic. The atmosphere was too pathetic for a meeting or protest, and too angry for a funeral.
Particularly striking were the women who cried at the manifestation for Milosevic’s funeral not for Slobo, but for themselves. They cried over their own misery and poverty. The tragedy lies in the fact that they do not realize that the one they are formally crying for is the one mostly responsible for their misery.

Here's a short

interview with Gradjanski List on Kosovo, Montenegro and other
easy topics. The English version will be available soon.

 

In the brave new world of ethnicity in Bosnia, the House of Peoples in the Serb Republic also has one MP, who is 'neuter'... in the original it is "neopredjeljena", I guess undecided. Otherwise, its multiethnic heaven, including Serbs, Montenegrins, Croats, Bosniaks, Slovenes and Jews.

It turns out that Sali Berisha plagiarized a speech from his much beloved predecessor Fatos Nano (as if talking about "solving the system of equations" wouldn't give it away). Coincidentally, I found out recently from a colleague that a draft constitution of an unnamed African country plagiarized its neighbors constitutions. Hmm, how could one punish governmental plagiarism? Maybe there should be an EU guideline against state plagiarism, but then how would candidate countries adopt all this acquis communitaire...