Hilary Clinton discovered in retrospect, how dangerous it was going to Bosnia in 1996... sounds like in five years, she will also remember that she fought of Radovan Karadzic single-handedly after the landing and chased after a horde of assorted war criminals. Describing Bosnia in March 1996 as a war-zone is surely a bit silly (esp. if you are an American). I'd say visiting the US embassy in Belgrade today might be more risky...

As part of the British Academy Project which I am working on with Gulnur Aybet and Neven Andjelic, we just launched the project website: http://integratingbosnia.org.uk/.

The fall of a government...

The recent government crisis in Macedonia runs the risk of breaking with the tradition of Albanian party inclusion in goverment since 1990. The technical government in office since the government crisis triggered by the DPA leaving the governing coalition does not include Albanians, as the party refused to rejoin the government, even if only temporary. This reflects a general crisis in the Macedonian-Albanian political relations. Gruevski’s pledge to ignore ethnic politics when coming to office with the VMRO in 2006 has less meant tackling the other challenges Macedonia is facing, but rather ignoring the concerns of the Albanian community and engaging in constant campaigning, which has given him an edge over his main opponent, the SDSM, but alienated him from his coalition partner. New elections run the risk that his party might gain a strong position to form government, but will not facilitate compromise seeking with Albanian political parties. The failure of DPA to deliver during its time in government means that DUI will remain and probably strengthen its role as the strongest party among the Albanian community, resulting in a more difficult coalition forming process than after the last elections in 2006.

Thus, there are serious government and political crises in Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo and now Macedonia.

How to make a threat...
Confronted with pressure from some EU states to handle banking secrecy more restrictively, Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, said "I look forward to many years of fascinating, fundamental, discussion." Now here's a way to make a threat. Velja, Kostunica and co., take note.

Headline of the day: Montenegro mobile penetration reaches 175.6 percent. I am not sure how mobile penetration can be more than a 100 percent, but I am not surprised that Montenegro succeeded. I guess everybody has a mobile and three quarters of a second one...

According to Kathimerini, Matthew Nimetz has come up with five(!) new suggestions for the name of Macedonia:

Democratic Republic of Macedonia (like Democratic Republic of Congo or German Democratic Republic, generally reserved for, ehm, less democratic state)

Constitutional Republic of Macedonia (as opposed to the unconstitutional of Macedonia?)

Independent Republic of Macedonia (here's a compromise for Kosovo, it just calls itself 'independent' with quotation marks and Serbia pretends to accept it, or maybe the official name of Kosovo could become "Lazna Republika Kosova")

Republic of Upper Macedonia (like Upper Volta, aka Burkina Faso)

I think generally republics should be required to add meaningful adjectives to their names:

"Smallish Republic of Montenegro" (SROCG)

"Kinda Democratic Republic of Serbia" (KDROS)

"Democratic Federal and Sometimes Confederal Republic of Three Equal Constituent People and Nobody Else of Bosnia and Herzegovina" (DFSCRTECPNEBH)

Forgotten in the whole discussion on the independence declaration of Kosovo has been the news that the Dayton Peace Agreement has been lost. Luckily somebody found it
. Currently the Serbian government is trying to find the independence declaration of Kosovo so that it can be 'lost' to.

If you thought that the Department of Records in Brazil mistyping "Buttle" instead of "Tuttle" was one of the worst historic bureaucratic blunders, you're wrong.
In a court case in the Netherlands in which survivors sue the UN and the Netherlands over the genocide in Srebrenica, the UN noted that "its office in Sarajevo refused air support in Srebrenica because the Dutch commander there failed to fill the request form correctly."

Did they cross in the wrong box (please support us with UN navy maritime support) or did they wrongly identify what happened in the form (calling it mass murder prior to an independent UN confirmation based on an extended fact finding mission) or where some signatures missing (of the victims/perpetrators confirming events) ? I'm curious.

Fast Food for Shmekers... I wonder if it schmeckts?

While singing Partisan songs is still a scandal in Croatia, especially on election night, it is quiet ok in Bosnia.

Here's the bad headline of the day from the IHT: "Early tally gives edge to pro-independence party in Kosovo". So PDK won narrowly over the other parties which are not pro-independence? It is hard to distinguish parties in Kosovo on the issue of political program, but still, emphasizing the only thing which does not set them apart is not exactly a journalistic highlight...

If you are in Bosnia these days and are not following what's going on, you might be mistaken to think that presidential elections are occurring.

Candidate 1: Sarajevo, last weekend

Candidate 2: Banja Luka, last weekend
The good news is that there are no elections looming and neither Sanader nor Putin are running in them.

The bad news is that once more some are looking outside the country for help from other outsiders ruling the country.

In fact, the hysteria in RS and Serbia over Miroslav Ljacak's imposition is out of proportion when reading the decision and actually remembering that in the past year more often than not, decisions were not taken in the Council of Minister of Bosnia due to the boycott of Bosniak members.

Never before have RS officials and Serbia react so hostile to any OHR decision over the past 12 years, suggesting that it is not really about the decision, but rather something to do with Kosovo.
See more here

Kostunica has the choice to give up Kosovo and choose the heavenly kingdom to follow the example of good old Knez Lazar. As Kostunica noted, a new Kosovo battle is being fought between Serbia and the USA. So Lazar will have the illustrious company of Milosevic and Kostunica keeping him company... Lucky him.

The rest of the article from the BBC website actually made more sense. But as the headline reads, I am expecting a string of follow up articles: "Iran 'urged to finally meet international commitments: Kyoto Protocol or sanctions" or "UN presses Gaza on keeping beaches clean" or maybe "US government warns: Rising problem of fly-tipping in Iraq"

It seems like Feral Tribune has come to an end. Ironically, it is not Tudjman's attempts to ban it through pornography tax but good old capitalism: The saying about the two certainties--taxes and death--seems closely intertwined in the case of Feral Tribune. Unable to pay back some huge tax bill from the Ministry of Finance, it stopped publishing. It's harder in the post-authoritarian times with less clear targets, smaller battles to fight, but I hope Feral will also survive this latest challenge.

Happy Birthday, B92!

Today B92 became an 'adult', celebrating it's 18th birthday. When listing to all the stories about B92 during the 1990s, being an adult promises to make the station a lot more boring and less interesting than it was in its younger years. It is hard to be as provocative nowadays, but as one listener said today, how come that the radicals are still in parliament, as they were in the 1990s and B92 is no longer the same.

Miroslav Lajcak has been formally named new High Rep. for Bosnia by the PIC. This confirms what has been long expected. He will replace Schwarz-Schilling in July. Will he be just another 'last HR' or really the last one (both Ashdown and Schwarz-Schiling suggested being the last ones). His main accomplishment has been the mediation in Montenegro for the referendum. While the referendum and independence went smoothly, there were a lot of ifs which remained unclear and highly problematic in last year's intervention (the so-called gray zone in particular, i.e. what to do if less than 55 but more than 50 % voted for independence). Lacking heavy weight backing from a larger EU member state (like Ashdown) and in fact being from a country which has a government currently not viewed as the most, ehem, European might make Lajcak weak. Considering the confrontational climate in Bosnian politics at the moment and the standstill in terms of reforms, this is all not too promising.

The Politics of Eurovision
So Serbia won for the first time the Eurovision contest (the last and only time Yugoslavia won with Riva in 1990, the country fell apart...). Goran's blog at B92 is great on the domestic debates on Marija Serifovic and the fact that she does not resemble the conventional singers who make it Serbia...
Yesterday I was able to witness Terry Wogan's legendary commentary for the first time...and instead I got Jacques Chirac. Wogan's view of Eastern Europe was awfully reminiscent of Chirac when he called the countries of Eastern Europe "mal élevée" (badly educated). Wogan, annoyed at the apparent block voting, even called a new wall (I shall not comment on the tastelessness of this suggestion). Teaming prejudice, his commentary displayed a great degree of ignorance. He was upset at the voting along certain geographic blocks (ex-Soviet Union, Baltics, Balkans, etc.) and apparently had particular disdain at the East European for this habit.
His commentary ignored the fact that although Western Europe might be economically more powerful, there are simply more countries in "Eastern Europe". Of the 42 participating countries, only 16 are from 'Western Europe' (without Greece), so a disbalance in favor of the East should not surprise anybody (and let's not forget that the only four countries which do not have to earn their place are... Germany, France, UK and Spain). Furthermore, the accusation of block voting ignores the real regional political dynamics. Geographic proximity often makes voting for each other more difficult. Nationalist stereotypes would suggest that it would be easier for Turkey to, let's say vote for the UK, than Armenia. This is in fact the fascinating bit of the competition how televoting meant that politically problematic votes (like Turkey for Armenia, Croatia for Serbia) are no longer excluded by 'politically correct' juries. Eurovision-Citizens calling in have often demonstrated to the break some conventional animosities. When Austria supports Germany, Turkey Armenia, Croatia Serbia, etc. then this is voting despite (past) political considerations, not because of them.
Geographical patterns exist, but they are not rigid blocks but rather patterns determined not only by geography or supposed regional sympathy. Musical tastes differ across Europe and not everything will appeal everywhere, and this after all the fun of the whole spectacle.

After extended attempts to transform Tadic into Kostunica, the experiment finally succeeded (see above). The government looks a lot like continuity with the previous one. In particular DSS has had relatively few losses, considering that in fact the heavy-weight ministries which DS gained were previously held either by G17plus (finance, defense) or by SPO (foreign affairs). Good news, no more capital investments, although Velja "Kobsicijade" Ilic can still build highways and enrich political life with his astute observations.
The silly ministry of this government is the Ministry for Kosovo and Metohija. In fact, I think there should be two ministries, one for Kosovo and one for Metohija, guided by a joint council on Kosovo and Metohija...

The latest news that DS and DSS (and G17) agreed to form a government seems like the 'playing chicken' phase of government formation is over. So electing Nikolic might turn out to have been a similar bluff (and hopefully shortlived) like Velja Ilic's talk about a DSS minority government with radical support a few weeks ago. The key question now to find out is who blinked first: DS or DSS. For a while DSS had the stronger card as they could (theoretically) form an alternative government to a coalition with DS. However, the threat of new elections, just a few days away, seems to be benefiting DS rather than DSS, as they could be portraying themselves as the only/last bastion against radicals in government.
Now the question is whether the other chicken game--between the USA and Russia--in the UN security council will be similarly resolved.